Browsing by Author "Chen, Xiaoguang"

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Consistent Negative Responses of Rice Yield in China to High Temperatures and Extreme Temperature Events
(2017-07) Chen, Xiaoguang; Chen, Shuai; Xiaoguang Chen (corresponding author), Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, No. 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, China 610074. Email: cxg@swufe.edu.cn. Shuai Chen, China Academy for Rural Development (CARD), Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China 310058. Email: shuaichen@zju.edu.cn.
We analyzed a county-level data set of rice yield and daily weather outcomes in China to examine the effects of high temperatures and extreme temperature events on rice yield. We found that (i) rice yield responded negatively to high temperatures (>29°C) and extreme temperature events, including cold and heat waves; (ii) rice yield exhibited highly nonlinear responses to temperature changes: rice yield increased with temperature up to 29°C and peaked with 1,550-1,800 growing degree-days; and (iii) holding current growing seasons and regions constant, average rice yield in China is projected to decrease by 11-50 percent by 2070 under future warming. These results imply that both warming and extreme temperature events pose major challenges for Chinese rice farmers, and that the effectiveness of adaptations will depend on how well they reduce the negative temperature impacts on rice yield on very hot and cold days.
High Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Exert Large and Opposing Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in China
(2017-07) Chen, Xiaoguang; Tian, Guoping; ∗ Xiaoguang Chen (corresponding author: cxg@swufe.edu.cn) and Guoping Tian, Research Institute of Economics and Management, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, No. 55 Guanghuacun Street, Chengdu, China 610074.
We analyzed a provincial-scale data set of observed winter wheat yield, together with fine-scale daily weather outcomes from 1979 to 2011, to assess the responses of winter wheat yield in China to changes in the daytime temperature (Tmax) and the nighttime temperature (Tmin). Contrasting with the literature’s emphasis on a negative correlation between Tmin and wheat yield, we showed that winter wheat yield in China responded positively to higher Tmin, with the positive yield responses varying across wheat growing seasons. In line with the previous studies, we found that winter wheat yield exhibited negative responses to higher Tmax. These findings are useful for the development of China’s wheat-breeding programs and the design of efficient adaptation strategies in China’s grain sector to cope with future warming.