Browsing by Author "Dawson, Stephen"

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Accountability in Swedish Political Parties? Survey evidence of misconduct and whistleblowing
(The Quality of Government Institute (QoG), 2023-10) Niklasson, Birgitta; Bågenholm, Andreas; Dawson, Stephen; De Fine Licht, Jenny
Climate Shocks, Gender, and Incumbency Punishment
(2025-09) Elia, Emily; Sundström, Aksel; Dawson, Stephen; The Quality of Government Institute
Do voters punish women incumbents more harshly than men during environmental disasters? Crises can exacerbate gender biases that lead voters to prefer masculine leadership, and these biases may make voters evaluate female incumbents’ performances during climate-related disasters more harshly. We test this argument in the context of South Africa, focusing on droughts – a salient crisis that informs voters about incumbents’ competence through their response. We complement a vignette experiment on incumbent gender and drought response with real-world geo-located data on drought onset, disaster declarations, and electoral results. We find consistent evidence that women incumbents receive greater electoral benefits than men when they provide drought relief, yet they receive a greater punishment when they fail to secure relief. Exploration of mechanisms highlights perceptions of male leaders’ involvement in stealing drought relief funds. These findings have implications for women’s representation, especially considering climate change where droughts are becoming more common and severe.
Perceptions of Political Competition and the Integrity of Elections
(2022-01-26) Dawson, Stephen
Political competition is generally regarded as one of the hallmarks of a well-functioning democracy. Competitive elections hold politicians to account, thereby increasing government performance to the benefit of citizens. However, the uncertainty generated by close elections can also create perverse incentives for political actors to undermine the integrity of the contest to improve their chances of victory. Yet we still know relatively little about when and in what ways close elections can be detrimental to democracy. This dissertation suggests that the relationship between electoral integrity and political competition is best understood from the perspective that there are two primary dimensions of this competition: the intensity of electoral competitiveness and the credibility of the information that portrays it. While political elites may be incentivised to manipulate elections in different ways to improve or consolidate their chances of victory, voters may also consider portrayals of competition along these two dimensions when deciding whether and for whom to vote. Four research articles study different aspects of this relationship across a range of institutional contexts and using several methodological approaches. First, a cross-national study of presidential elections across two levels of democracy finds that electoral fraud increases with electoral competition in democratic contexts. Second, a study on the 2016 municipal elections in South Africa reveals a strategic political economy of targeted vote-buying. Third, a qualitative comparison of falling participation levels in Central Asia and the Caucasus reconsiders the cyclical nature of the relationship between political competition and electoral integrity. Fourth, a survey experiment in Turkey attempts to gauge whether the perceived credibility of opinion polls can have adverse consequences for voting behaviour. The findings of this dissertation suggest that political competition – and importantly how it is perceived – can have significant consequences for the conduct of elections. It is therefore of great importance to pay close attention to how information relating to competition is interacted with by political actors during elections.
Protected Areas and Spillovers on Corruption
(2024-12) Sundströ, Aksel; Dawson, Stephen; Pailler, Sharon; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Do nature protected area (PA) establishments change local corruption levels? This article presents a theory of spatial spillovers, predicting (a) less corruption in areas inside protection, through increased government oversight and (b) more corruption outside of PAs because of corrupt activities’ displacement. To test these expectations we match geo-spatial information on the timing of the establishment of PAs in Africa with over 200,000 geo-coded Afrobarometer survey respondents. Our difference-in-differences approach finds little evidence of reductions in corruption inside PAs. However, we report an increase in experiences with bribery for respondents living in adjacent areas. Mechanism tests demonstrate an increased presence of police officers in these areas as well as larger effects in areas around PAs that attract tourists. We contribute to insights on linkages between conservation and government quality, a relationship with increasing relevance due to the expansion of PAs around the world.
The Ethnic Politics of Nature Protection: Ethnic Favoritism and Protected Areas in Africa
(2024-07) Sundström, Aksel; Müller-Crepon, Carl; Haass, Felix; Dawson, Stephen; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
Nature protected areas are hailed as an institutional solution to the global biodiversity crisis. However, conservation entails local economic costs for some communities and benefits for others. We propose that the establishment of protected areas in Africa follows an ethno-political logic which implies that governments distribute protected areas such that their ethnic constituencies are shielded from their costs but enjoy their benefits. We test this argument using continent-wide data on ethnic groups’ power status and protected area establishment since independence. Difference-in-differences models show that political inclusion decreases nature protection in groups’ settlement areas. Yet, this effect is reversed for protected areas that plausibly generate tourism income. We also find that ethno-political inclusion is linked to legal degradation of protected areas. Our findings on the ethno-political underpinnings of nature protection support long-voiced concerns by activists that politically marginalized groups carry disproportional costs of nature conservation.