Browsing by Author "Gren, Simon"

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    School’s out! Information Cues and Retrospective Voting in the Case of School Closures in Sweden
    (2022-09) Gren, Simon; Leuschner, Elena; The Quality of Government Institute
    While researchprovidesevidencethatvoters’considergovernments’ past performance,littleisknownaboutwhichinformationvoterspay attentionto.Wesuggesttwocompetingtheoriesofretrospective voting:Outcome-orientedvotersonlyreacttothepolicyoutcome, whereas position-orientedvotersconsidertheinitialproposalasin- formativeoftheincumbent’spolicypositionandpunishthemforthe unpopularidea.Wetesttheseopposingmechanismsusingthecase of widelyunpopularschoolclosuresandoriginallycompiledgranular data onSwedishlocalelectionsresultsfrom2002to2018.Weexploit within municipalityvariationinvotingacrosstimetocausallyesti- mate theconsequencesforincumbentsintheneighborhoodsurround- ing theschools.Ourresultsconfirmthatvoterspunishincumbents for closingaschoolbutalsoforwithdrawingtheproposal:theyvote position-oriented.Ourfindingshaveimplicationsfortheunderstand- ing ofretrospectivevotingandwhichinformationcuesvoterslook backto.