Browsing by Author "Lindskog, Annika"

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Adult Mortality, AIDS and Fertility in Rural Malawi
(2013-08) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika; Dept of Economics, University of Gothenburg
The impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa has received attention recently, since changes in population structure can impact on future economic development. We analyze the effect of AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using data from Malawi 2004 Demographic and Health Survey and population censuses. Since AIDS was the dominating cause of death during the 1990s and early 2000s, we use prime-age adult mortality as the key explanatory variable. The focus is on heterogeneity in the response of gender-specific mortality rates. By estimating ordered probit models we show that actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, and that the overall fertility response is positive but small. One interpretation of the findings is that the effects of female and male mortality differ because of an old-age security motive for having children. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, she is less likely to need support of children and demand should be low, but when the risk of husband’s death is high, the woman should expect to rely more on children’s support.
Changing local customs: Long-run impacts of the earliest campaigns against female genital cutting
(University of Gothenburg, 2023-03) Congdon Fors, Heather; Isaksson, Ann-Sofie; Lindskog, Annika; Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg
This paper investigates the long-run impacts of Christian missionary expansion on the practice of female genital cutting (FGC) in sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical analysis draws on historical data on the locations of early European missions geographically matched with Demographic and Health Survey data on FGC practices of around 410,000 respondents from 42 surveys performed over a 30-year period (1990-2020) in 14 African countries. The results suggest that historical Christian missions have impacted FGC practices today. The benchmark estimates imply that a person living 10 km from a historical mission is 4-6 percentage points less likely to have undergone FGC than someone living 100 km from a mission site. Similarly, having one more mission per 1000 km2 in one’s ancestral ethnic homeland decreases the probability of having undergone FGC by around 8 percentage points. The effect is robust across a large number of specifications and control variables, both modern and historic. We use ethnographic data on pre-colonial FGC to show that the location of missions was not correlated with the practice of FGC in the local population.
Conditional Persistence? Historical Disease Exposure and Government Response to COVID-19
(University of Gothenburg, 2023-08) Lindskog, Annika; Olsson, Ola; Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg
Drawing on the literature on cultural adaptations to historical disease exposure, we investigate differences in government containment policies to the COVID-19 pandemic. We hypothesize that a higher historical exposure to disease led to a stricter government response, particularly during the first year of the pandemic characterized by fundamental uncertainty. Our empirical analysis confirms this hypothesis, both for differences in government responses to disease dynamics between countries and for state-level containment policies within the United States. Our results suggest that a persistent effect of historical health legacies on contemporary outcomes, may be conditional on the character of the public health risk at hand. Deep cultural norms, determined by historical experiences, may play a minor role most of the time but are activated in times of fundamental uncertainty.
Does a Diversification Motive Influence Children’s School Entry in the Ethiopian Highlands?
(2011-03) Lindskog, Annika
Household-level diversification of human capital investments is investigated. A simple model is developed, followed by an empirical analysis using 2000-2007 data from the rural Amhara region of Ethiopia. Diversification would imply negative siblings’ dependency and be more important in more risk-averse households. Hence it is investigated if older siblings’ literacy has a more negative (smaller if positive) impact on younger siblings’ school entry in more risk-averse households. Results suggest diversification across brothers, but are not statistically strong, and with forces creating positive sibling dependency dominating over diversification.
Economic Inequality and HIV in Malawi
(2009-12-28T13:35:23Z) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika
Education and HIV incidence among young women: causation or selection?
(2015-11) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika; George, Gavin; Dept. of Economics, University of Gothenburg
Several studies report that schooling protects against HIV infection in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of secondary school attendance on the probability of HIV incidence among young women aged 15-24, using panel data from rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. Three approaches are used to distinguish causation from selection: instrumentation to identify the causal effect, a fixed effects model to control for constant unobserved factors and assessments of the bias from selection on unobserved variables. Although there is a strong negative association between secondary school attendance and HIV incidence, we are not able to find support for a causal effect. Thus, there is no evidence that interventions that increase secondary school attendance in KwaZulu-Natal would mechanically reduce HIV risk for young women. Our focus on school attendance, in contrast to studies that analyze school attainment, might explain the negative finding.
Essays on Economic Behaviour: HIV/AIDS, Schooling, and Inequality
(2011-04-14) Lindskog, Annika
Paper 1: Economic Inequality and HIV in Malawi To analyze if the spread of HIV is related to economic inequality we estimate multilevel models of the individual probability of HIV infection among young Malawian women. We find a positive association between HIV infection and inequality at both the neighbourhood and district levels, but no effect of individual poverty. We also find that the HIV-inequality relationship is related to risky sex, gender violence, and return migration, though no variable completely replaces economic inequality as a predictor of HIV infections. The HIV-inequality relationship does not seem to be related to bad health, gender gaps in education or women’s market work. Paper 2: Uncovering the Impact of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Case of Malawi We evaluate the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the reproductive behaviour for all women in Malawi, HIV-negative and HIV-positive alike, allowing for heterogeneous response depending on age and prior number of births. HIV/AIDS increases the probability that a young woman gives birth to her first child, while it decreases the probability to give birth of older women and of women who have already given birth. The resulting change in the distribution of fertility across age groups is likely to be more demographically and economically important than changes in the total number of children a woman gives birth to. Paper 3: HIV/AIDS, Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi This paper studies the effect of HIV/AIDS on actual and desired fertility in rural Malawi, using the 2004 Demographic and Health Survey. The focus is on HIV-negative women and men, and behavioral responses in the general population. To avoid feedback effects, lagged prime-age mortality is used as a proxy for HIV/AIDS, and to control for time-invariant factors influencing both fertility and prime-age mortality, pre-HIV district fertility is used. We find a positive behavioral fertility response to mortality increases. Moreover, actual fertility responds positively to male mortality but negatively to female mortality, while women’s and men’s desired fertility respond negatively to mortality. These findings are consistent with an insurance and old-age security motive for having children among rural Malawian women. When a woman risks death before her children grow up, the value of children is low, and when the risk of husband’s death is high, the value of children is high. We also find that the positive fertility response is limited to younger women, with no discernable age-pattern in desired fertility effects. Possible reasons are early marriage to reduce risk of HIV-infections and having babies early to reduce the risk of giving birth to HIV-infected babies. Paper 4: Does a Diversification Motive Influence Children’s School Entry in the Ethiopian Highlands? Household-level diversification of human capital investments is investigated. A simple model is developed, followed by an empirical analysis using 2000-2007 data from the rural Amhara region of Ethiopia. Diversification would imply negative siblings’ dependency and be more important in more risk-averse households. Hence it is investigated if older siblings’ literacy has a more negative (smaller if positive) impact on younger siblings’ school entry in more risk-averse households. Results suggest diversification across brothers, but are not statistically strong, and with forces creating positive sibling dependency dominating over diversification. Paper 5: The Effect of Older Siblings’ Literacy on School-Entry and Primary School Progress in the Ethiopian Highlands The effects of older sisters’ and brothers’ literacy on the annual school entry and primary school grade progress probabilities of boys and girls are estimated using within-household variation. Older siblings’ literacy has positive effects, especially for same-sex siblings. The literacy of older sisters appears to be more beneficial than that of older brothers, not least since it has positive effects on school entry among both boys and girls, and since it has positive effects also when the sister has left the household. There are positive effects both from literate older siblings who left school and from literate older siblings who are still in school. This suggests that within-household education spillovers, rather than time-varying credit constraints, explain the positive sibling-dependency, since with credit constraints children in school would compete over scarce resources. The positive effects on school progress are limited to same-sex siblings who are still present in the household, suggesting every-day interactions to be important. Paper 6: Preferences for Redistribution—A country Comparison of Fairness Judgements This paper seeks to explain within- and between-country variation in redistributive preferences in terms of self-interest concerns and an input-based concept of fairness, which we examine by looking at the effects of beliefs regarding the causes of income differences. Results of estimations based on data for 25 countries indicate that both factors are indeed important determinants of redistribution support, in line with hypothesised patterns. We find that while differences in beliefs on what causes income differences seem to be important for explaining within-country variation in redistributive preferences, they do little to explain between-country differences. Differences in the effects of holding certain beliefs, however, are important for explaining between-country variation in redistributive preferences, suggesting considerable heterogeneity across societies in what is considered as fair.
Harmful norms: Can social convention theory explain the persistence of female genital cutting in Africa!
(University of Gothenburg, 2021-11) Congdon Fors, Heather; Isaksson, Ann-Sofie; Lindskog, Annika; Department of Economics
This paper investigates the explanatory power of social convention theory for explaining the persistence of female genital cutting (FGC) in a broad sample of African countries. While influential in policy circles, the idea that FGC is best described as a bad equilibrium in a social coordination game has recently been challenged by quantitative evidence from selected countries. These studies have pointed towards the importance of private preferences. We use novel approaches to test whether FGC is social interdependent when decisions also depend on private preferences. We test implications of the simple fact that according to social convention theory mothers will sometimes cut their daughters even if they do not support the practice. The substantial regional variation in FGC practices warrants investigation in a broad sample. Empirical results drawing on Demographic and Health Survey data from 34 surveys performed between 1992-2018 in 11 African countries suggest that cutting behavior is indeed often socially interdependent, and hence that it can be understood as a social convention. Our findings indicate that even if social convention theory does not provide the full picture, it should not be dismissed. Accordingly, interventions that acknowledge the social interdependence of cutting behavior are likely to be more successful than interventions that do not.
HIV/AIDS, Adult Mortality and Fertility: Evidence from Malawi
(2008-02-05T09:09:53Z) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika
The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Malawi. The future course of fertility will have an impact on both macroeconomic variables, such as GDP per capita, and various socioeconomic factors like mother-to-child-transmission of HIV, child mortality, the number of orphans, and public expenditures on schooling. Data on both prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence rates at districts level are used to measure the impact of HIV/AIDS, exploiting the large geographical variation in the distribution of HIV/AIDS in Malawi. Fertility is estimated for individual women, and measured as the number of births given during the last five years. Estimations are also carried out for the desired number of children. The major finding is that HIV/AIDS reduces fertility. Uninfected women both give birth to and desire to have fewer children in districts where prime-age adult mortality and HIV-prevalence are high, and vice versa. However, for young women, aged 15-19, there is a positive relationship between fertility and prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence, possibly because they wish to have children while being uninfected. This is likely to have negative effects on both educational attainment and child mortality. As also shown by previous studies, HIV-infected women give birth to fewer children than uninfected women. This is probably due to changed fertility preferences, as well as to physiological factors.
How Does Communal HIV/AIDS Affect Fertility? - Evidence from Malawi
(2009-06-25T06:58:25Z) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika
Recently there has been a surge in interest on how HIV/AIDS affects fertility in countries hit by the disease. In this study, the effect of communal HIV/AIDS on fertility in rural Malawi is estimated using individual data from the 2004 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey on fertility and the ideal number of children. The survey includes individual HIV status, making it possible to distinguish between behavioural and physiological effects. The main indicator of communal HIV/AIDS is the district-level prime-age mortality rate, obtained from the 1998 Population Census. The paper first tests the overall behavioural fertility response due to the epidemic, and then tests for differences in response due to gender-specific communal mortality and HIV rates, as well as individual age and knowledge about mother-to-child HIV transmission. The main findings are: communal HIV/AIDS has a negative but small impact on fertility; actual fertility and women’s ideal number of children is more negatively affected by HIV/AIDS among women than among men; and a woman’s age and knowledge about mother-tochild transmission of HIV are important determinants of her fertility response to the disease.
Intimate Partner Violence and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa
(2013-03 Revised 2013-05. Revised 2014-01) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika; Dept of Economics, University of Gothenburg
We investigate the relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV) and HIV among married women using Demographic and Health Survey data from ten sub-Saharan African countries, and find a strong association. The association is due to higher HIV risk among violent men; neither women’s decreased ability to protect themselves from HIV transmission within marriage, nor their risky sexual behavior, explains the link. Thus, it is not violence per se that drives the spread of HIV, but the fact that violent men are more likely to become HIV positive and then infect their wives. Programs that aim at reducing HIV by eliminating IPV should therefore also focus on men’s risky sexual behavior.
Just the right amount of caution? Remote instruction and student performance in Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic
(University of Gothenburg, 2025-09) Hall, Caroline; Lindskog, Annika; Lundin, Martin; Department of Economics; JEL-codes: I21; I28
Land Certification and Schooling in Rural Ethiopia
(2015-09) Congdon Fors, Heather; Houngbedji, Kenneth; Lindskog, Annika; Dept. of Economics, University of Gothenburg
This paper investigates the impact of a rural land certification program on schooling in two zones of the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Using the variation in the timing of the arrival of the program at the local level, we investigate the link between land tenure security, schooling and child labor. The results show a positive effect of improved land rights on school enrollment for all children in one of the zones studied, and for oldest sons in the other. Grade progress of oldest sons, who are most likely to inherit the land, worsens.
Preferences for redistribution - a cross-country study in fairness
(2007-08-01T08:31:13Z) Isaksson, Ann-Sofie; Lindskog, Annika
This paper seeks to explain within as well as between country variation in preferences for redistribution in terms of self interest concerns, and an input based concept of fairness captured by the effects of beliefs about the causes of income differences. Results of estimations based on data for the US, Sweden, Germany and Hungary indicate that both of these factors are important determinants of general redistribution support, in line with hypothesised patterns. Furthermore it is found that not only do beliefs about causes of income differ widely between countries, but also the effects of these beliefs, suggesting considerable heterogeneity across societies in what is considered as fair.
Son Preferences and Education Inequalities in India
(2019-10) Congdon Fors, Heather; Lindskog, Annika; Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg
We investigate the impact of son preferences in India on gender inequalities in education. We distinguish the impact of preferential treatment of boys from the impact of gender-biased fertility strategies (gender-specific fertility stopping rules and sex-selective abortions). Results show strong impacts of gender-biased fertility strategies on education differences between girls and boys. Preferential treatment of boys has a more limited impact on gender differences. Further, results suggest that gender-biased fertility strategies create gender inequalities in education both because girls and boys end up in systematically different families and because of gender-inequalities in pecuniary investment within families. The extra advantage of the eldest son within the family is small.
The Effect of Older Siblings’ Literacy on School Entry and Primary School Progress in the Ethiopian Highlands
(2011-03) Lindskog, Annika
The effects of older sisters’ and brothers’ literacy on the annual school entry and primary school grade progress probabilities of boys and girls are estimated using within-household variation. Older siblings’ literacy has positive effects, especially for same-sex siblings. The literacy of older sisters appears to be more beneficial than that of older brothers, not least since it has positive effects on school entry among both boys and girls, and since it has positive effects also when the sister has left the household. There are positive effects both from literate older siblings who left school and from literate older siblings who are still in school. This suggests that within-household education spillovers, rather than time-varying credit constraints, explain the positive sibling-dependency, since with credit constraints children in school would compete over scarce resources. The positive effects on school progress are limited to same-sex siblings who are still present in the household, suggesting every-day interactions to be important.
To educate a woman and to educate a man: Gender-specific sexual behaviour and HIV responses to an education reform in Botswana
(2019-05) Lindskog, Annika; Durevall, Dick; Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg
Education has been suggested as a ‘vaccine’ against HIV infection, but there is not much causal evidence behind this claim. Moreover, the few studies that exist on the impact of education on HIV infection and related outcomes have focused mostly on women, despite the fact that there are reasons to expect the responses of women and men to differ. This study analyses mechanisms that link education to HIV with a focus on gender differences, using data from four nationally representative surveys in Botswana. To estimate the casual effect, an exogenous one-year increase of junior secondary school is used, which in previous studies has been found to reduce HIV infection rates and increase incomes. The key finding is that women and men responded differently to the reform. It led to delayed sexual debut by up to a year among women and an increase in risky sex among men, measured by number of concurrent sexual partnerships and the likelihood of paying for sex. The increase in risky sex among men is likely to be due to the reform’s positive impact on income. The school reform reduced the likelihood of HIV infection among women, but had no statistically significant impact on this variable among men.
Uncovering the Effect of the HIV Epidemic on Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Malawi
(2008-09-16T08:53:59Z) Durevall, Dick; Lindskog, Annika
In many Sub-Saharan countries the HIV epidemic has spread to over 10% of the working-age population, and is likely to affect economically relevant behaviour. We evaluate the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on the reproductive behaviour for women in Malawi, allowing for a heterogeneous response depending on age and prior number of births. HIV/AIDS increases the probability that a young woman would give birth to her first child, while it decreases the probability to give birth of older women or of young women who have already given birth. The resulting change in the distribution of fertility across age-groups is likely to be more demographically and economically important than changes in the total number of children a woman gives birth to.
Within-Families Inequalities in Human Capital Accumulation in India
(2018-12) Congdon Fors, Heather; Lindskog, Annika; Dept. of Economics, University of Gothenburg
We investigate within-family inequalities in human capital accumulation in India. We consider both indicators of the child's current stock of human capital and of investment into their continued human capital accumulation, distinguishing between time investments and pecuniary investment into school quality. We develop a theoretical framework that demonstrates how credit constraints and opportunity cost of child time matter differently for time investments and pecuniary investments into human capital. We employ a within family model using sibship fixed effects, and find mostly negative birth order effects, i.e. earlier born children are better off. This is more in line with previous results from developed countries rather than from developing countries. However, for time investments, which are influenced by the opportunity cost of child time, birth order effects are more in line with what has previously been found in developing countries. Hence, we demonstrate that patterns of birth order effects differ by measure of human capital.
Within-Family Inequalities in Human Capital Accumulation in India: Birth Order and Gender Effects
(2017-05) Congdon Fors, Heather; Lindskog, Annika; Dept. of Economics, University of Gothenburg
In this paper we investigate birth order and gender effects on the development of children’s human capital in India. We investigate both indicators of the child’s current stock of human capital and of investment into their continued human capital accumulation, distinguishing between time investments and pecuniary investment into school quality. Our results show that in India, birth order effects are mostly negative. More specifically, birth order effects are negative for indicators of children's accumulated human capital stock and for indicators of pecuniary investments into school quality. These results are more in line with previous results from developed countries than from developing countries. However, for time investments, which are influenced by the opportunity cost of child time, birth order effects are positive. Gender aspects are also important. Girls are disadvantaged within families, and oldest son preferences can explain much of the within-household inequalities which we observe.