Browsing by Author "Maican, Florin G."

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    Costs of misspecification in break-model unit-root tests
    (2012-08) Maican, Florin G.; Sweeney, R.J.; Dept of Economics
    This paper examines power issues for the ADF and four break models (Perron 1989, Zivot and Andrews 1992) when the DGP corresponds to one of the break models. Choosing to test an incorrect break model can but need not greatly reduce the probability of rejecting the null. Break points that are relatively early in the sample period have substantial effects of increasing power. For modest shifts in time trends, simply including a time trend without shift in the model preserves power, but not for large time-trend shifts.
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    Essays in industry dynamics on imperfectly competitive markets
    (2010-05-18T09:07:31Z) Maican, Florin G.
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    From Boom to Bust and Back Again: A dynamic analysis of IT services
    (2012-09) Maican, Florin G.; Dept of Economics, University of Gothenburg
    Aggregate shocks in demand such as the burst of the 2001 dot-com bubble affect firms’ behavior and, therefore, the market structure. This paper proposes a fully dynamic oligopoly model to evaluate the impact of aggregate demand shocks on entry and exit costs as well as on investment and labor adjustment costs in IT services. The empirical application builds on an eight year panel dataset that includes every IT service firm in Sweden. The paper finds higher fixed investment and labor adjustment costs for software but lower for operational services after the dot-com bust. The entry costs for software were six times lower than for operational services, which might explain the large number of entrants in software. Entrants are found less productive than incumbents and net exit contributed the most to productivity growth in the IT services after the dot-com bust. For policy makers, the changes in cost structure give key information about industry dynamics and its impact on high-skilled jobs.
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    Real Exchange Rate Adjustment In European Transition Countries
    (2006) Sweeney, Richard J.; Maican, Florin G.; Department of Economics
    This paper presents unit-root test results for real exchange rates in ten Central and Eastern European transition countries during 1993:01-2003:12. Because of the shift from controlled to market economies and the accompanying crises, failed policy regimes and changes in exchange rate regimes, appropriate tests in transition countries require allowing for both structural changes and outliers. In both single-equation tests and panel tests with SUR techniques, the data reject the unit-root null for the CEE countries. Accounting for structural breaks and outliers gives much faster mean-reversion speeds than otherwise.
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    Rejection Probabilities for a Battery of Unit-Root Tests
    (2013-05) Maican, Florin G.; Sweeney, Richard J.; Dept of Economics, University of Gothenburg
    If the researcher tests each model in a battery at the a % significance level, the probability that at least one test rejects is generally larger than a %. For five unit-root models, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation and the inclusion-exclusion principle to show for a %=5% for each test, the probability that at least one test rejects is 16.2% rather than the upper-bound of 25% from the Bonferroni inequality. It also gives estimated probabilities that any combination two, three, four or five models all reject.