Browsing by Author "Reinbro, Simon"

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    Between the Lines: Investor Responses to Analyst Bias, Firm Guidance, and Credibility Cues
    (2025-08-21) Johansson, Elias; Reinbro, Simon; University of Gothenburg/Graduate School; Göteborgs universitet/Graduate School
    While earnings surprises in relation to analyst forecasts are well studied, less is known about how investors react when a firm’s own earnings guidance proves inaccurate. This thesis addresses this by investigating whether the source of a forecast error, firm issued guidance versus analyst consensus, differentially influences investor reactions. Using a sample of annual earnings announcements from publicly listed companies between 2010 and 2019, the study employs an event study methodology to capture short term abnormal stock price reactions to earnings surprises. Panel regression analysis is used to examine patterns in stock price volatility related to persistent guidance behaviors, such as underpromising or overpromising over multiple event windows. Short term price reactions are significantly stronger when analyst forecasts turn out to be wrong compared to the actual EPS, in relation to similar errors in firm guidance. Firms that Underpromise & Beat their own guidance experience increased stock price volatility, which suggest that repeated forecast failures erode management’s credibility. This is reinforced by the extended event windows showing increasing differentiation between guidance behaviors over time. Although the models lack statistical significance, the directional consistency of results aligns with signaling and disclosure theory, suggesting that trust and transparency influence investor responses more than the immediate reaction window. This thesis contributes to finance literature by showing that analyst forecasts have a stronger impact in the short term but also the effects of guidance credibility.
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    Poor risk management or external factors, what caused the semiconductor shortage within the automotive industry?
    (2022-04-07) Rimsäter, Ebba; Reinbro, Simon; University of Gothenburg/Department of Business Administration; Göteborgs universitet/Företagsekonomiska institutionen
    The purpose of this study is to investigate if and how risk management within the automotive industry has contributed to the outcome of semiconductor shortage, which has been affecting the industry since the beginning of 2020. The thesis is conducted as a qualitative interview study where data is gathered through interviews with people of interest, such as experts in the field of risk management, professors in nanotechnology and persons who work at automotive companies that have been directly affected by the semiconductor crisis. The results of the study show us that the outcome of the semiconductor crisis might depend on other factors than deficient risk management such as natural disasters, the pandemic and the fact that there is a very limited number of manufacturers. The risk management conducted by companies today and during this shortage have mainly had mitigating measures to survive rather than being able to foresee or prevent such a shortage. Furthermore, all interviewees agreed that it was not only poor risk management that has put them in the semiconductor shortage they are facing today, but a contributing factor. The future of risk management could potentially play a bigger role in the sense of foreseeing and preventing or further mitigating risks such as the semiconductor shortage with the help of artificial intelligence and better screening of the potential risks.