Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election

dc.contributor.author	Hibbs, Douglas A.
dc.date.accessioned	2011-07-04T08:35:50Z
dc.date.available	2011-07-04T08:35:50Z
dc.date.issued	2008
dc.identifier.issn	1653-3895
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/2077/26159
dc.description.abstract	Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.	sv
dc.language.iso	eng	sv
dc.publisher	CEFOS	sv
dc.relation.ispartofseries	CEFOS Working Papers	sv
dc.title	Implications of the ‘Bread and Peace’ Model for the 2008 US Presidential Election	sv
dc.type	Text	sv
dc.contributor.organization	CEFOS	sv