The Impact of Coca Supply Reduction Efforts on Violence in Colombia

Abstract

Cocaine remains one of the most problematic drugs in today's world. It has been associated with numerous negative health effects, as well as drug-related violence and other undesirable impacts. The "war on cocaine" encompasses a variety of measures to reduce its supply, but more knowledge is needed to conclude which measures are effective. This study researches the link between coca supply reduction and violence in Colombia. Is the reduction of coca plant increasing the level of violence in Colombia, or conversely, does less coca leaf mean less violence? This study analyses the data on coca cultivation, as well as homicide rates and kidnappings in 23 Colombian departments between 2004 - 2011 using panel data analysis. The analysis found a weak and statistically insignificant relationship between the variables "area under coca cultivation" and two variables representing violence level, i.e. "homicide rate" and "kidnapping rate". Therefore, the study concludes that the supply reduction effort should not be presented as a tool to reduce the violence in coca growing regions.