Empirisk studie av Indiens tjänstesektor - Vad händer med jobben?

Abstract

The fast growing economy of India has experienced fundamental structural changes in recent years. The share of the service sectors output has more than doubled since 1950 and is today estimated to make up almost 60 percent of India’s total output. In terms of total employment we have not yet seen a similar transformation. The observed discrepancy between sectorial shares of employment and output in the service sector raises questions about sustainability. This report aims to investigate the capacity of the Indian service sector in terms of employment creation in order to answer the question whether the recent GDP growth within the service sector can be considered as “jobless” or not. The measure of employment elasticity is used to analyze trends within and between different sectors of the Indian economy with focus on the service sector and its subsectors. Furthermore, we perform a Granger causality test in order to investigate the statistical causal relationship between GDP and employment. Our finding does indeed suggest the presence of jobless growth within the service sector. Declining employment elasticity in most sectors along with the discovery of no granger causality from GDP to employment are the two main reasons underlying this conclusion.