Massarbetslöshet i transportsektorn inom 20 år?

Abstract

The aim of this report has been threefold. Firstly the intention has been to describe the context in which such future development which is described by the statement "Every other job can be automated within 20 years" is meant to be realized; secondly explain why the external context must be an important part of such future projections which we find in Fölster (2014); and thirdly explore the various actors approach to the phenomenon of technological unemployment. The two questions asked were: “What difficulties and challenges can be identified in connection with the development and implementation of the driverless vehicles and how can they be explained?” and “How much weight do the actors attribute to the risk of the (technological) unemployment that may arise due to the implementation of the driverless vehicles in the transport sector?”. Designed as an interview study, this report was based on data produced via the use of semi-structured interviews which were conducted with actors relevant to this field. The actors were Volvo Cars Group, AB Volvo, the Swedish Transport Administration, a trucking company, Taxi Göteborg and Västra Götalandsregionen (who are responsible for the public transport in Gothenburg). The results showed many examples of both internal and external contextual challenges. These challenges were then analysed with the theories path dependence and technological determination. The conclusions arrived at were that the probability of the occupation “drivers”, estimated by Fölster (2014) to approximately 80 percent, has to be much lower if one takes the external contextual parameters into account, and that the risk for technological unemployment is no part of actors’ work with the development and implementation of this technology.