Negativ styrränta - en Pandoras ask - En studie av den svenska monetära transmissionsmekanismen under positiv och negativ styrränta

Abstract

As a response to periods of low inflation-rates the central banks of several European countries have chosen to lower their key interest rates below zero. Because of the rarity of this type of action, very little research has been performed on its consequences. The following study examines the monetary transmission mechanism, in particular whether or not its interest rate channel and exchange rate channel is applicable in a Swedish context. It will also evaluate if the channel is applicable after the Swedish central bank lowered its key rate to a negative level. The interest-rate channel implies that lowering the interest rate should result in an increase in lending. The exchange rate channel on the other hand predicts that a lower key interest rate should imply a depreciation of the value of SEK in relation to EUR. The interest-rate channel was tested by examining the relationship between the central bank key interest rate and lending to companies, banks and households. The exchange rate channel was tested by examining the relationship between the key interest rate and the exchange rate. The study shows that the interest rate channel is active in relation to lending to banks and to households. However, it was not applicable to the lending to companies. Furthermore, the effect on lending was maintained during the period of negative interest rate. The study also shows that the exchange rate channel is active. The effect was marginally weakened during the period of negative key interest rate. Because of the inability of the interest rate channel to affect lending to Swedish companies and the ambiguity within the field the study it is recommended that further research should be performed to be able to identify the particulars of the Swedish monetary transmission mechanism.