I FLYKTINGKRISENS SPÅR - En paneldata-analys över andel utrikes födda, flyktingar och dess effekt på löner.

Abstract

In this essay, we examine if the share of foreign born citizens’ effects average income of different occupations in a region. Further we examine if those effects are due to the number of refugees that the region has received. The essay stretches over the period between 2005-2016 and examines average wages of three high income occupations and four low income occupations. In general, the statistically significant results of our regressions show positive effects from the share of foreign born citizens on the average wages of high income occupations while the effect on low income occupations is negative or less positive.

When running the regressions with the share of refugees as the variable of interest we found largely the same pattern as we did for foreign share. Although, the lack of statistical significance for most occupations makes it difficult to draw any general conclusions. Sweden has the second largest occupation gap between natives and foreign born in Europé and it takes in average 9 years for a refugee to get employment in Sweden (Ekonomifakta, 2017a). Because of this, we might not yet have seen the possible effect of the increased refugee immigration on wages. Future research should aim to replicate this or similar studies in 10-15 years’ time to better be able to estimate the effects of the unusually high refugee influx in Sweden during 2014-2016.