Can instant feedback attenuate Overconfidence?

Abstract

Overconfidence is one the most common behavioral biases. In this paper I make use of an online survey experiment to investigate whether overconfidence can be attenuated by providing individuals with feedback. This is done in two stages. In the first stage, a group of subjects receive feedback on how they perform relative to their estimated performance in terms of calibration. In the second stage, subjects are asked to provide interval estimates with 90% certainty to interval judgments. Between the first and second stage feedback is given to subjects in the treatment group in order to find out if they behave differently. The results from the experiment provide weak evidence in support of feedback attenuating overconfidence.