VARFÖR ÄR DET LÄGRE VALDELTAGANDE I KOMMUNALA OMVAL? En jämförande studie av åtta svenska omval mellan år 1976–2019

Abstract

Since 1986 there has been eight re-elections to Swedish municipalities and regions. This thesis aims to explain the great decline and difference in voter turnout between the eight cases of re-election. This is accomplished by a systematic review and comparison of all eight cases guided by the turnout theory of calculus voting on three levels: Institutional, contextual and individual. Using Mills: methods of agreement and indirect method of difference to find potential causal links. The lion’s share of the work behind this thesis is gathering information from archives, a unique review of the media coverage leading up to the re-elections and gathering relevant statistics from government agencies and other organizations. There is a special focus on the region of “Västra Götaland” because of the possibility of analyzing 49 municipalities and 957 electoral districts, enabling simple statistical analyses to compliment the review. Thus, it is the most comprehensive review of modern Swedish re-elections to date. The thesis finds that: - Institutionally the law that limits early voting lowers turnout, while the elections closer to the previous lower’s turnout - Contextually the elections key actors, voters, parties and the media, plays a large roll the turnout and are usually weaker than in ordinary elections. Local issues are very important for the turnout - Individual factors like social status and integration are important for deciding turnout but have a lower effect on turnout than expected.