The demographic crisis in Europe – “Immigrants, welcome!” - A quantitative study of fertility and migrations rates in 27 European states 1997 and 2017

Abstract

The present study examines whether the demographic components fertility and migration are related among 27 European countries. From the 1970s fertility levels have decreased and the life expectancy has risen, which has led to both ageing and shrinking populations sizes in Europe. The United Nations (2000) and the European Union (2006) have thus recommended immigration as one solution to address the population decline. By performing cross-sectional analyses, this study investigates the statistical association between total fertility rates and net migration rate per capita in 1997 and 2017. The general finding is that fertility levels do not have any effect on migration rates both years. This implies that migration is mainly shaped by other incentives such as push and pull factors and not by levels of fertility. The results show however two positive associations in 1997, which is an outcome of Cyprus and Malta’s strong impact in the regression analyses due to the countries’ different levels of fertility and migration in comparison to the other twenty-five countries here. In addition, higher economic development associates with higher migration rates in both 1997 and 2017 and the southern regimes have the highest migration rates in 1997 among the welfare state regime types.