The double-edged sword? A quantitative analysis of authoritarian stability in the digital context.

Abstract

Ever since its introduction the relationship between the modern information and communication technologies (ICTs) and authoritarian stability has been a topic of discussion. We have witnessed how the tools these technologies brought with them have been used to mobilize protest and topple dictators, at the same time we are seeing how authoritarian leaders use the technologies for the benefit of their own through enhancing surveillance and propaganda efforts. A duality that is shared by the scholars on the topic. This thesis aims to contribute to the understanding of how modern information and telecommunication technologies impacts autocratic stability, through examine whether the relationship is different depending on which digital tactics the autocrat uses. In doing this the thesis emphasize on how using the technology for the purpose of repression, affects the outcome of the technology use in authoritarian countries. The question has been answered through logistical regression analysis, comparing how the use of ICTs effects the probability of autocratic breakdown under the moderation of “digital repression”, during the time period of 2000-2017 and in 75 countries. The results are unclear, however signs of relevant factors impacting the relationship for future studies are found.