International Influence: The Hidden Dimension

Abstract

In this paper we develop and test hypotheses about possible influences that lie outside national borders. A major reason for studying international influences is Galton’s Problem, which cautions that domestic determinants may receive too much credit for democratization if we ignore international determinants. There are many good theoretical and empirical reasons to expect that domestic factors are not the sole determinants. We lay out a theoretical framework that systematically catalogues most of the possible international hypotheses. We then test selected hypotheses about exogenous shocks and contagion – the spread of democracy outcomes from country to country through various international networks. We focus on contagion through neighboring countries, military alliances, and current and former colonial ties. Surprisingly, contagion at first appears to be real but so small that it could be ignored when studying domestic influences. However, for some kinds of contagion our analysis implies that the long-run effects grow quite large and must be taken into account if we want to understand how democracies develop and decline. For example, our estimates suggest that the average West European/North American country was about 0.20 points more democratic over the 1900-2010 period than it would have been without other democracies as neighbors. This paradox leads us to conclude that international influences are a hidden dimension of democratization.