A TRANSATLANTIC DIVORCE AND THE TIME FOR EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNTY? - A study on how US foreign policy, during 2010-2020, impacted EU member state views on defence integration

Abstract

This thesis explores the impact of US foreign policy, during 2010-2020, on EU member state willingness to integrate defence, by utilizing a mixed-method approach. The objective of the study is to investigate how EU member states reacted to the Obama administration’s ‘pivot to Asia’ and the election and presidency of Donald Trump and whether those administrations contributed to further defence integration. The quantitative analysis focuses on changes in defence expenditure, military personnel, and European collaborative procurement expenditures, and finds that the ‘pivot to Asia’ did not have an impact on EU member states defence expenditures. Quantitative analysis finds that EU member state increased defence expenditures after 2015, which steepened from 2017 which could be a continued response to Russian aggression, Brexit, and Trump threats to the EU and NATO. Qualitative analysis focuses on changes in rhetoric regarding EU member state participation in the newly launched defence initiative PESCO, as well as their willingness to increase defence integration. The thesis finds no support that the changes in US commitment to Europe impacted the EU member states to participate in PESCO or was an argument for further defence integration. The thesis concludes that as PESCO is a member state-driven initiative, it enables EU member states to pursue projects that align with their self-interests. The thesis also concludes that the EU’s reaction to US foreign policy is constrained by a lack of actorness. Further research on EU member state views on other defence initiatives is needed.