Scenario Planning Analysis of the Industry of Commercial Vehicles - A Strategic Outlook

Abstract

The industry of commercial vehicles is undergoing significant changes that affect activities of the complete value chain, as well as how the truck is operated. The industry is shaped by the trends of sustainable and safe transportations, vehicle autonomy, and connectivity. However, there is a dispersed view among scholars and practitioners of what the future will look like. To study the future is a difficult matter, where futures studies is the umbrella term of methods to do it. Scenario planning is one such. At the same time, the currently offered scenario planning methodologies lack certain elements in terms of trend identification and quantification, why the need to develop such was identified. The developed framework was then tested on the commercial vehicle industry. To be able to identify significant trends and study the impact they have on the commercial vehicle industry, a qualitative research approach, together with an exploratory stance and abductive approach, have been taken. The scenario planning analysis has been used as research design. To develop a framework and then apply it to an industry has included both primary data collection from interviews and secondary data collection from e.g. academic journals and industry reports. A thematic analysis was conducted to structure and analyze the data. The developed framework is believed to put more emphasis on trend identification. It consists of six separate steps with clear descriptions and distinctive actions to take in each step. The result from the application of the framework on the commercial vehicle industry is that three trends were identified to have a significant impact in the coming 10 years. The identified trends are V2V, Platooning and Fuel cell electric vehicles. The critical factors that need to be solved before the trends are present is the development of technological standards for V2V, regulatory framework for Platooning, and increased numbers of fuel stations for Fuel cell Electric Vehicles. The implications for the complete supply chain of the CV industry are clear: All firms conducting business in relation to the industry needs to adhere their businesses to these trends the coming ten years.