How Differences in Forecasted and Actual Values of Macroeconomic Indicators Influences the Stock Market.

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to analyse if macroeconomic announcements have a significant influence on the stock prices on the S&P 500 index. It is investigated by various correlation tests, descriptive statistics tables and multiple OLS-regressions containing variables about economic activity, inflation and unemployment rates. Further OLS-regressions are also conducted together with a crisis dummy variable that tests and compares the different effects during times of economic growth and times of financial distress. The results of this thesis varied in terms of significance and this is partly in consensus with previous literature. Only the unemployment rate had a significant effect on the S&P 500 index and all OLS-regressions containing the crisis dummy variable generated insignificant coefficients. Thus, indicating an interesting but difficult topic to research.