EU: DET NYA NATO? EU:s utveckling i en farlig omvärldsutveckling

Abstract

The world is changing around Europe; the rule-based international order is being challenged by war in Ukraine, and Europe’s strongest ally, the United States, is pulling away from the continent, under the leadership of Donald Trump. The European Union finds itself increasingly alone and unprepared; with threats coming from Russia to the east, and its prime ally retreating to the west. How will the EU react? And what’s the reasoning behind its response? This thesis examines how the European Commission, under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, has framed and justified its security and defense cooperation between 2019 and 2025. The study investigates the Commission’s positioning toward internal EU defense integration, cooperation with NATO, and with the United States. A qualitative analysis will be employed, using two major theories in international relations: realism and liberalism as analytical lenses. The analysis explores whether the Commission's expressed will to deepen cooperation is primarily driven by value-based motivations or security concerns. The results suggest that while liberal rhetoric persists, the Commission’s security discourse is increasingly shaped by realist concerns, especially after 2022. This is particularly evident in the push for greater EU defense autonomy and in the evolving tone toward the United States during Donald Trump’s second term. The findings point to a growing strategic ambition within the EU, driven by the perception of a more volatile and less reliable international environmet.