Superpower in Progess. An Ideal-Type Analysis of China’s Global Status

Abstract

The People’s Republic of China has been growing at a rapid pace, with their GDP beginning to rival the global hegemon of the past three decades, the United States of America. Many scholars have begun to debate whether we are heading towards a bipolar world order with the U.S on one side and China on the other, or if China’s growth and advancement will begin to plateau and allow the U.S to maintain global dominance. These debates are framed around the keyword “superpower”, and the question of whether or not China has reached this status or is about to do so. However, the definition of the word and the parameters for measuring superpower status remain unclear. The scholarship remains divided on what truly constitutes a superpower and on whether China currently qualifies. To address this gap, this thesis develops an ideal-type model that defines superpower status along four distinct dimensions: military power, economic power, diplomatic influence and soft power, and long-term resilience. China’s performance in each of these dimensions is empirically analysed and systematically compared to that of the United States, the benchmark for a superpower. The analysis reveals that while China fulfils several criteria, particularly in the economic domain, it does not yet meet the full spectrum of superpower characteristics. This thesis therefore argues that superpower status is a spectrum, identifying China as a “superpower in progress”. The findings contribute to both clarifying the classification of global powers and the broader understanding of todays evolving international order.