From Fringe to Front Page - The Great Replacement Conspiracy Theory in Swedish News Media

Abstract

Conspiracy theories have received limited academic attention regarding how they are represented, legitimized, or challenged in the media. As far-right populist actors increasingly use conspiracy narratives in political communication, the risk of these gaining legitimacy has potential societal consequences. Such factors include polarization, erosion of democratic norms, increased discrimination, and possible violence. This study focuses exclusively on Swedish news media and explores how coverage and framing of ‘the Great Replacement’ conspiracy theory are presented between 2015 and 2025. Using a qualitative content analysis supported by quantitative mapping on more than one thousand articles and chronicles from news outlets in different media categories. The findings show a substantial increase over the past ten years. The qualitative content analysis is guided by framing theory and agenda-setting theory, which developed categories, codes, and themes of frames and discourse frames. Identifying language characteristics and frame descriptions was used in the categorization of articles. The results find that mainstream outlets dominate the amount of coverage, often using delegitimizing frames as the conspiracy theory is reported together with racism, extremism, and conspiratorial thinking. Left-leaning alternative and advocacy journalist outlets position themselves as watchdogs and reinforce counter-narrative discourse against conspiracy theory and far-right populism. In contrast, the alternative right media frames 'the Great Replacement' as a legitimate concern towards demographic change, highlighting statistical distortion, censorship, and anti-establishment narratives that aim to undermine mainstream media and government. Ideological divides shape how the theory is framed, where partisan media aligns with the narratives of their agenda. The results demonstrate how extremist ideas can gain access to, and over time become salient, within the public sphere. This study is limited by its frame selection, scope, and absence of audience effects. Future research should expand the scope, incorporate network analysis, and examine the media’s influence on democratic discourse by using complementary frames. Given the complexity and sensitivity of this unexplored topic, particularly the ties to far-right ideology and extremism, further scholarly contributions are valuable.