Natural Disasters and Government Turnover

Abstract

Natural disasters have been linked to both violent conflict and, in some settings, poor economic growth, but do they also drive government parties out of office? We study government turnover in a global sample of more than 200 elections to the executive. Natural disasters are associated with more frequent turnover, but not in highly democratic countries. The effect of geophysical disasters is especially strong, and even stronger when endogeneity is addressed.