Productivity Dynamics and the Role of “Big-Box” Entrants in Retailing

Abstract

Entry of large (“big-box”) stores along with a drastic fall in the total number of stores is a striking trend in retail markets. We use a dynamic structural model to estimate total factor productivity in retail. Then we assess whether entry of large stores drives exit and growth in the productivity distribution of incumbents. Using detailed data on all retail food stores in Sweden, we find that local market characteristics, selection, and nonlinearities in the productivity process are important when estimating retail productivity. Large entrants force low productive stores to exit and surviving stores to increase their productivity growth. Growth increases most among incumbents in the bottom part of the productivity distribution, and then declines with the productivity level of incumbents. We use political preferences in local markets to control for endogeneity of large entrants. Our findings suggest that large entrants play a crucial role for driving productivity growth.