Can Africa Reduce Poverty by Half by 2015?

Abstract

This study uses simulations to explore the possibility of halving the percentage of people living in extreme poverty in Africa by 2015. It is shown that initial levels of inequality and per capita consumption determine the cumulative growth and inequality reductions required to achieve the target. The study finds that on average Africa only needs a relatively modest annual rate of growth in per capita household consumption to halve poverty by 2015 if inequality remains unchanged. The trade-off between growth and changes in inequality varies greatly among countries and their policy-choices are thus quite different. In some cases small changes in income-distribution can have a large effect on poverty, while in others a strong focus on growth is the only viable option.