The Heuristics Intermodal Transport Model Calculation System

Abstract

Intermodal transport is by many considered to be a possible solution to increased transport needs of the future and also to be a way of reducing the negative impacts of transport such as emission, land use, and congestion. In Swedish as well as in European transport policy, goals have been expressed about increasing the market shares of intermodal transport. However, increasing the market share of intermodal transport calls for increased knowledge about which strategies are optimal/satisfying for the continued development of the intermodal transport system. This knowledge is required at different levels such as the transport policy level, the operators' level, and the shippers' level. There is a need for answers to questions about which market shares are possible in total, for regions, and for transport links; what an optimal system design looks like in terms of transport links, train frequencies, and train sizes; where intermodal terminals and road connections should be located; what rolling stock should be used; and how pickup and distribution areas around terminals should be drawn. These answers are needed in terms of realistic, strategic scenarios that point to viable roads for the development of intermodal transport. The scenarios provide information that is necessary for the design of effective transport policy, for operators' investments and system designs, for the formulation of business missions and strategies by operators, and for the choice of transport solutions for shippers. Model tools designed specifically for analysing intermodal transport in the way described above and producing the output described above do not exist in the market. A computer based analysis and decision support model for Swedish domestic and border crossing intermodal transport has been developed at The School of Business, Economics and Law at University of Gothenburg. The Heuristics Intermodal Transport model HIT-Model, is a user friendly model that can be run on an ordinary desktop PC. The model takes its starting point in a competitive situation between traditional all-road transport and intermodal transport, where the theoretical potential of intermodal transport is determined by how well it performs in comparison with all-road transport. The computer based model is aimed at being capable of giving answers to the questions mentioned above under different conditions concerning total demand for transport, cost structures, relative price changes, transport vehicle capacity, and transport vehicle performance etc. The model considers the competitive situation between different modes of transport in the market. This project aims at supplying the model with user interface and a sufficiently broad and relevant empirical data base making it possible to make the various types of analyses that were described above. To collect all the data that is needed for every single analysis is not efficient, since the same data to a large extent will be required for different types of use of the model, and since data collection is time consuming and expensive. This report contains of four parts. The parts are designed to be read both as one report and individually as separate reports. Some overlap might therefore occur between the parts in order to make the separate reports also possible to read as stand-alone reports.