Working Papers/Books /Department of Political Science / Statsvetenskapliga institutionen

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://gupea-staging.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/30129

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 475

Climate Shocks, Gender, and Incumbency Punishment
(2025-09) Elia, Emily; Sundström, Aksel; Dawson, Stephen; The Quality of Government Institute
Do voters punish women incumbents more harshly than men during environmental disasters? Crises can exacerbate gender biases that lead voters to prefer masculine leadership, and these biases may make voters evaluate female incumbents’ performances during climate-related disasters more harshly. We test this argument in the context of South Africa, focusing on droughts – a salient crisis that informs voters about incumbents’ competence through their response. We complement a vignette experiment on incumbent gender and drought response with real-world geo-located data on drought onset, disaster declarations, and electoral results. We find consistent evidence that women incumbents receive greater electoral benefits than men when they provide drought relief, yet they receive a greater punishment when they fail to secure relief. Exploration of mechanisms highlights perceptions of male leaders’ involvement in stealing drought relief funds. These findings have implications for women’s representation, especially considering climate change where droughts are becoming more common and severe.
Legal Clarity and Impartiality: A Global Experimental Study of Consistency in Bureaucratic Decision Making
(2025-08) Nilsson, Joakim; Nistotskaya, Marina; The Quality of Government Institute
The language used in legal texts is often ambiguous, hindering bureaucrats’ ability to understand, interpret, and apply the law consistently, and thereby threatening impartiality. While the Quality of Government (QoG) literature emphasizes the importance of impartiality, it overlooks how the clarity of legal language shapes this principle in practice. This paper bridges two bodies of scholarship: the QoG literature and legal studies that highlight the role of language clarity in law comprehension but haven’t considered its implica tions for bureaucratic decision-making. We advance the argument that language clarity fosters impartiality by enabling more consistent application of the law. To test this claim, we conducted an online survey ex periment with 900 current and former government officials from 33 countries. Participants were randomly assigned to resolve a case – based on a real-life scenario – in which the legal provision was presented in either ambiguous or clearer language. The results show that exposure to ambiguous wording reduced con sistently in the application of the law, whereas clear language fostered greater judgment consistency. These results call for a revision of the prevailing conceptualization of high QoG – from a mere absence of factors not “stipulated in the policy or the law” to also include the clarity with which laws are formulated. The paper underscores the practical significance of legal drafting for public sector performance.
Governing Corporate Accountability: Extraterritoriality and the Effectiveness of NCP Mediation
(2025-03) Sund, Mirja; Nistotskaya, Marina; The Quality of Governmen Institute
As dominant actors in a globalised economy, multinational corporations can evade responsibility for labour and human rights violations and other misconduct within their own operations, those of their clients, or across supply chains. To address this challenge, OECD governments established the Guideline for Multinational Enterprises on Responsible Business Conduct, aiming to promote corporate responsibility and mitigate adverse impacts. The OECD Guidelines’ enforcement mechanism is the non-judicial system of National Contact Points (NCPs), which mediates disputes between corporations and affected parties. Notably, NCPs can accept complaints concerning corporate conduct beyond their own jurisdiction, raising questions about whether extraterritorial cases are resolved as effectively as domestic ones. This paper examines the impact of extraterritoriality on NCP effectiveness, understood as the likelihood of mediation reaching an agreement, using a mixed-method approach. A logistic regression analysis of 233 NCP cases (2000–2022) finds that extraterritorial cases are less likely to result in an agreement. A comparative case study further reveals that extraterritoriality may weaken NCP effectiveness both directly, through the complexity of evidence—its availability and interpretability—and indirectly, via intercultural and language challenges that affect trust between parties. These findings underscore the need to strengthen NCP capacity to address the unique challenges of mediating transnational disputes.
Report on QoG/Lancet Policy Day: Policy Pathways to Sustainable WellBeing and Peace through Investments in Institutional Quality, Health Equity and Gender Equality under Crisis and Conflict.
(2025-03) The Quality of Governmen Institute
What Are the Economic Consequences of Aligning Policies with Public Opinion?
(2025-11) Lindqvist, Jesper; Persson, Mikael; Sundell, Anders; The Quality of Governmen Institute
What are the economic consequences of policies that follow public opinion? We combine international survey data with fiscal statistics, and find that the public generally favors increased spending on most areas and lower taxes for most citizens. Consequently, in countries where policy follows public opinion, deficits grow and debt accumulates. The results do not mean that the public necessarily is irrational, as these surveys do not task respondents with balancing the budget. However, they do illustrate the limits of democratic models that uncritically value strict congruence between public opinion and policy.
Mass support for conserving 30% of the Earth by 2030: Experimental evidence from five continents
(2024-12) Michaelsen, Patrik; Sundström, Aksel; Jagers, Sverker C.; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Rapid global expansion of protected areas is critical for safeguarding biodiversity but depends on political action for successful implementation. Following ratification of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, most countries face an unprecedented increase in area-based conservation in adhering to its Target 3: conserving 30% of land, waters, and seas by 2030. These expansions prompt difficult trade-offs between conservation, social and economic interests. A key factor in securing legitimacy and practical feasibility for expansion programs is understanding what factors determine public support for them. Using novel survey and conjoint experiment data we show that, in eight countries across five continents, public opinion is 1) strongly in favor of the “30-by-30”-target, and 2) surprisingly consistent about policy priorities for the design of both international and domestic expansion regimes. We find that, at the international level, support increases with protection responsibilities equally split between countries, rich countries bearing higher costs, more countries cooperating, and placement trade banned. At the domestic level, support generally increase when nature-values are prioritized over social or economic values, and in many countries decrease when costs are borne by a general tax increase, parks are managed by private companies, and when access to parks is restricted. Together, our results demonstrate how protected area expansion policies can be shaped in line with public opinion and facilitate achieving 30% protected areas by 2030.
Protected Areas and Spillovers on Corruption
(2024-12) Sundströ, Aksel; Dawson, Stephen; Pailler, Sharon; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Do nature protected area (PA) establishments change local corruption levels? This article presents a theory of spatial spillovers, predicting (a) less corruption in areas inside protection, through increased government oversight and (b) more corruption outside of PAs because of corrupt activities’ displacement. To test these expectations we match geo-spatial information on the timing of the establishment of PAs in Africa with over 200,000 geo-coded Afrobarometer survey respondents. Our difference-in-differences approach finds little evidence of reductions in corruption inside PAs. However, we report an increase in experiences with bribery for respondents living in adjacent areas. Mechanism tests demonstrate an increased presence of police officers in these areas as well as larger effects in areas around PAs that attract tourists. We contribute to insights on linkages between conservation and government quality, a relationship with increasing relevance due to the expansion of PAs around the world.
Public Resources and Accountability: Experimental Evidence
(2024-12) Alvarado, Mariana; Ahmed, Taiwo A.; Sundström, Aksel; Jagers, Sverker C.; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Recent political economy research indicates that the well-known positive relationship between taxation and accountability may be driven not by the source of revenues per se but by citizens’ expectations regarding how they will be used. Two mechanisms have been proposed: information and ownership. We leverage both observational and experimental data to further test these mechanisms and their interaction in a realworld policy setting. In particular, we field a comprehensive survey experiment in carefully selected Peruvian districts that benefit from mining fees. The experiment manipulates the source of revenues (local taxes vs mining fees), as well as ownership over these revenues, while keeping the size of the budget constant. We find that it is easier to manipulate ownership over taxes than windfalls, and that low levels of tax awareness hinder ownership over tax revenues. Nonetheless, our findings indicate that increasing ownership over tax revenues does motivate people to monitor the use of the budget but has no effect on immediate behaviors. Contrary to expectations, we also find that respondents are more likely to demand particularistic goods when the budget is perceived to come from taxes than when it comes from windfalls. Finally, the information and ownership mechanisms are found to act as complements.
Is unequal responsiveness caused by high-income earners having more informed opinions?: An empirical test.
(2024-11) Håfström Dehdari, Sirus; Lindqvist; Sundell, Anders; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Previous research has shown that the affluent see more of their preferred policies realized, which scholars of opinion—policy responsiveness attribute to unequal influence. A rival theory instead states that the reason is informational asymmetry: High-income earners have more informed opinions, which align better with policymakers’ decisions. We test this rival theory in a most-likely case, where other sources of unequal opinion—policy responsiveness are minimized: monetary policy, set by an independent central bank. Analyses of survey data from more than 100,000 UK respondents initially reveal several findings in line with the theory: The official interest rate develops in ways relatively more favored by high-income earners, and high-income earners also exhibit better understanding of central bank policy and the economy. Nevertheless, informational asymmetries only explain part of why high-income earners get more of the policy they prefer, even in this most-likely setting. Case-specific reasons for unequal congruence are then explored.
Asymmetric Responsiveness: The Effects of Protesters’ Demographics and Policy Preferences on the Political Agenda
(2024-11) Leuschner, Elena; The Quality of Governmen Institute
Previous research predicts that politicians are responsive to citizens with whom they share demographics or policy preferences. I argue that protests are particularly susceptible to politicians’ di!erential responsiveness. First, protesters’ demographics are relatively easy to identify, potentially increasing politicians’ felt responsibility to respond to protesters they descriptively represent. Second, protests are often perceived as less legitimate than other forms of participation, justifying politicians’ responsiveness to those they substantively represent. In a pre-registered experiment, I tested how 1124 Swedish local politicians respond to protests that vary in who is protesting and what policy demands they raise. Uncertainty is large around the e!ect of shared demographics. In contrast, shared policy preferences increase responsiveness asymmetrically: Left-wing politicians are more responsive but show greater di!erentiation, favoring co-partisan protesters over others. Exploratory analyses reveal that politicians’ priors on protest legitimacy explain why right-wing politicians di!erentiate less and are less responsive to protests, even right-wing protests.
Individual-Level Determinants of Corruption Perception in Five Areas of Public Life in Sweden Evidence from 2022 SOM Survey
(2024-11) Hallin, Hampus; Nistotskaya, Marina; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
Corruption perceptions are not only shared social norms shaped by societal dynamics, but they also reflections of individual experiences, values, and viewpoints. This study examines the relationship between a set of individual- and community-level factors and perceptions of corruption, using the data from a nationwide survey in Sweden. We analyze the drivers of corruption perceptions among Swedish citizens across five key areas of public life: politicians, civil servants, police, public healthcare, and foreign aid. Our findings reveals that Swedish citizens hold sector specific perceptions of corruption – rather than singular and unified – with the foreign aid perceived as the most corrupt sector and healthcare as the least corrupt. Only a few factors exhibit a statistically significant impact on corruption perception across all five areas, reinforcing our main finding that there are varieties of corruption perceptions rather than a singular, unified view of corruption in the public sector
Children of the State: Ideological Education Increases Support for Autocratic Leadership
(2024-10) Lindskog, Hilma; Carelli, Daniel; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
How does exposure to authoritarian content in education affect support for autocratic leadership? While higher levels of education are linked to less support for autocratic leadership, states often leverage education to foster regime loyalty in their population. Due to the unavailability of comprehensive data, previous research has not adequately examined how state interference in education might condition the link between education and support for autocratic leadership. Using historical data on education systems from the 20th century provided by the EPSM dataset, alongside individual-level survey data from the ESS and the WVS, this paper tests the conditioning effect of ideology in education. We employ causal inference methods by exploiting compulsory schooling reforms in 15 European countries and account for both the content in the curriculum and the teachers’ ideological convictions. The study highlights the role of regime-specific ideology and inter-personal socialization in shaping the strength of the ‘education effect’.
Structural Characteristics of Long-Term Care Facilities for Elderly and COVID-19 Outcomes: A Systematic Literature Review
(2024-09) Nistotskaya, Marina; Dahlström, Carl; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
In many countries, elder citizens residing in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) were disproportionately affected by the SARS-Cov-2. However, The risk of contracting the virus, the incidence of infection, and mortality rates varied greatly between different facilities. This variation has motivated a growing literature examining the association between structural characteristics of LTCFs and COVID-19 outcomes. This paper present the findings of a rapid review of empirical studies investigating the link between ownership status, facility size and staffing, on the one hand, characteristics with COVID-19 outcomes among LTCFs, on the other. The reviewed literature is characterised by the lack of consensus. The review reveals a lack of consensus in the literature. Variation in COVID-19 outcomes is not systematically linked to ownership type, and factors related to facility size and staffing characteristics also show inconsistent associations with the presence of infection cases, infection rates, and mortality
Parliamentary Control of Ministerial Policymaking
(2024-09) Holmgren, Mikael; Dahlström, Carl; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
A key issue in parliamentary democracy centers on the parliament’s ability to contain ministerial drift. Recent scholarship highlights the importance of strong legislative institutions for enforcing the parliament’s wishes, emphasizing that the ministers’ policy choices can often be corrected after the fact by the overseeing standing committees. In this paper, we argue that the parliament’s oversight can also create strong incentives for the ministers to adapt their policy positions in advance—and thereby obviate any need for actual parliamentary enforcement. To substantiate our analysis, we field five decades’ worth of data from the Swedish government and show that the ministers systematically stack their bills in the parliament’s favor already at the agenda-setting stage. Specifically, by selectively eschewing proposals from individual ministers that lie relatively far from the parliament’s ideological position, the ministers collectively ensure that the bulk of bills that reach the parliament will typically support the parliament’s interests. Our conclusions suggest that ministers in parliamentary governments may enjoy significantly less policy discretion than is commonly believed.
Rasmus Broms & Elias Markstedt: Local information capacity in Sweden (pdf)
(2024-09) Broms, Rasmus; Markstedt, Elias; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
A growing strand of research revolving around the concept of legibility emphasizes the central function that information plays for state capacity accumulation. The bulk of these contributions remain focused on the existence of infrastructure supporting such information gathering rather than its actual content and quality. Further, attribution of agency in these narratives tends to remain at the level of the central state. Instead, we focus on local actors, specifically municipalities in Sweden. We use a publicly provided database of Swedish municipalities, containing around 5,000 miscellaneous indicators on various topics, to operationalize the propensity for producing missing data in a given municipality-year as a measure of (low) local legibility. The resulting “missingness”-index is devised through item-response theory modeling and covers all 290 Swedish municipalities between 1995 and 2022. Insofar, we make a methodological contribution by showing how public data repositories—often riddled by data issues endogenous to state capacity—can be leveraged as a valid empirical indicator of the same concept. Further, missingness is positively related to municipal capacity, measured by the administration size. Conversely, it is negatively related to local political autonomy, measured using voting patterns. These findings illustrate the importance of considering local government for the maintenance of state capacity in general.
When Elders Rule: Age Composition in DecisionMaking and Legitimacy Perceptions
(2024-09) Sundström, Aksel; McClean, Charles T.; Stockemer, Daniel; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
How does the predominance of older people in decision-making bodies influence citizens’ evaluations of their legitimacy? Through a survey experiment in the US, we vary the age composition of a bipartisan state legislative committee and its policy decisions. We find that citizens view the committee and its decisions as more legitimate if it has a balanced age composition, rather than consisting only of older members. The presence of younger members improves perceptions of procedural fairness, regardless of the decision reached, and can even legitimize decisions that go against youth interests. Additionally, age diversity enhances perceived legitimacy more for younger people than for older people, and for Democrats compared to Republicans. Our study suggests that greater youth representation in the decision-making process can bolster public trust in democratic institutions to produce more equitable outcomes.
Experimental Evidence from Belgium on Local Politicians’ Engagement with Protests
(2024-09) Leuschner, Elena; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
When do politicians react responsively to protesters demands? I argue that politicians react responsively to protests they anticipate their voters to support — peaceful, large, and actionable protests. In an experiment with Belgian local politicians (N = 1003), I randomize protest scenarios that vary how peaceful and large protests are, and how actionable protesters’ demand is. Results show that peaceful protests prompt the most responsive reactions, whereas large protests are more limited to influencing a party’s agenda. However, among politicians who perceive protesters as their voters (in this case leftwing politicians), moderately disruptive actions still prompt politicians to listen to protesters’ demands. Whether demands are formulated in an actionable way does not affect politicians’ reactions when compared to abstract demands. This study contributes to understanding when and how politicians are responsive to their constituents in the case of protests and shows that being peaceful shapes politicians’ incentives to react responsively.
The Ethnic Politics of Nature Protection: Ethnic Favoritism and Protected Areas in Africa
(2024-07) Sundström, Aksel; Müller-Crepon, Carl; Haass, Felix; Dawson, Stephen; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
Nature protected areas are hailed as an institutional solution to the global biodiversity crisis. However, conservation entails local economic costs for some communities and benefits for others. We propose that the establishment of protected areas in Africa follows an ethno-political logic which implies that governments distribute protected areas such that their ethnic constituencies are shielded from their costs but enjoy their benefits. We test this argument using continent-wide data on ethnic groups’ power status and protected area establishment since independence. Difference-in-differences models show that political inclusion decreases nature protection in groups’ settlement areas. Yet, this effect is reversed for protected areas that plausibly generate tourism income. We also find that ethno-political inclusion is linked to legal degradation of protected areas. Our findings on the ethno-political underpinnings of nature protection support long-voiced concerns by activists that politically marginalized groups carry disproportional costs of nature conservation.
The Impact of Corruption on Climate Change Mitigation
(2024-05) Sundström, Aksel; Harring, Niklas; Jagers, Sverker C.; Povitkina, Marina; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
This is a review of the rapidly growing literature on how corruption affects climate change mitigation, focusing both on greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sinks. Analyzing 200 studies, we document that corruption hampers mitigation, i.e. increases emissions, and worsens sinks’ storage capacity through deforestation or overfishing. Reducing corruption is vital to successfully combatting global warming, because corruption makes climate policies less ambitious when formulated and less effective when implemented, due to low rule compliance. The findings are established through various types of data, research designs and methods. Trends are mapped and points of disagreement are highlighted. We suggest that research move beyond using country-level indicators and propose several avenues for future research.
Environmental NGOs in Emerging Democracies: Obstacles to Effective Action
(2024-04) Bolkvadze, Ketevan; Carlitz, Ruth; Povitkina, Marina; The Quality of Government Institute (QoG)
Environmental non-governmental organizations (ENGOs) play an important role in environmental governance. However, ENGO activity does not always lead to favorable outcomes. This paper highlights the ways in which neoliberal economic reforms and governance deficits constrain ENGO effectiveness through a case study of Georgia — an emerging democracy that has attracted considerable external funding in the environmental domain. We analyze representative household survey data on environmental attitudes and conduct interviews with ENGO representatives and other key informants to show how many Georgian ENGOs are able to create a fa¸cade of successful activities for the country’s donors, while not contributing to meaningful environmental outcomes at the local level. The case study further illustrates the implications of Georgia’s business-government nexus, which censors criticism by genuine ENGOs, while leading others to take lucrative contracts for environmental impact evaluations. These findings have important implications for efforts by external actors working to promote environmental governance.

Browse

Recent Submissions