| dc.description.abstract | This paper is one of the first to systematically address the question of whether
strength of ethnic identity, political parties’ candidates campaign strategies, poverty,
or evaluation of clientelism versus collective/public goods, determines who becomes
persuadable voters (swing voters) in new democracies. It brings together three of the
major research streams in comparative politics – the literatures on development,
democracy, and political clientelism – to properly situate the swing voter as –
potentially – the pivotal instrument of democracy and antidote to the public goods
deficit in failed developmental states. Secondly, it contributes with a new and more
adequate way of conceptualizing and measuring swing voters. Thirdly, it brings the
use of count regression models to the study of swing voters and voting behavior in
general. Finally, the paper conducts an empirical analysis using a unique data set
from a survey conducted ahead of Ghana’s 2008 elections. The results show that
while constituency competitiveness, poverty, education, and access to information
impact on swing voting much as expected, the role of politicians’ performance in
provision of collective and public goods plays a much larger role than the existing
literature makes us expect. | sv |
