A Network Model of Decision Making Applied to the European Union

Abstract

Network structures constrain and enable political actors. Nonetheless, few models of decision making in international politics take network relations into account. We formulate and test a network model of decision making that incorporates the influence relations among political decision makers. In the first stage of the model, decision makers influence each other’s initial policy positions on controversial issues through their network relations. The extent to which this influence leads to changes in decision makers’ initial policy positions depends on the presence of network ties with other actors and the relative salience of the issue to the decision makers. In the second stage of the model, decision makers take a decision on the basis of their revised policy positions. The dataset we use to test the model combines information on the network relations among the member states’ representations to the EU and decision-making actors’ initial policy positions on controversial issues. The network model generates more accurate predictions of decision outcomes on these issues than does an appropriate baseline model. We draw out the implications of our findings for understanding the role of network relations in international politics.