| dc.description.abstract | In the world there are three main refining and trading hubs: Houston,
Rotterdam and Singapore. In this research a historical perspective and
outlook is given of clean petroleum product (CPP) trading in Southeast Asia,
choosing the quickly developing region area around Singapore. The current
circumstances and future outlook are based on the country situation of eight
ASEAN countries: Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The country situation
describes politics, economics and business environment, amongst others,
together with production and consumption of CPPs which influences
international sea trading. The main question is what the developments are of
international sea trading in ASEAN. Based on statistical data gathered from
international and local sources, the trend of production and consumption is
identified for six CPPs (motor gasoline, aviation gasoline, kerosene, jet fuel,
diesel and naphtha) and what that entails for the countries’ imports and
exports.
The political situation is variable, with Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei being
stable, with Singapore being under control of a strict but well organized
political party, striving for big economic growth, Malaysia turning its country
into a regional economic powerhouse and Brunei’s Sultan profiting from its
abundance of natural resources. Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam are
developing, with Vietnam cutting down its long lasting corruption and all
countries trying to peacefully end disputes with ethnic minorities. Thailand and
Cambodia are considered unstable, due to respectively a military coup and
big problems with its ‘democracy’. Looking at economic growth in the
analyzed period, Vietnam is by far growing fastest whereas Brunei shows little
progression. Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia were hit quite
significantly in their economies with the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998.
Singapore is the least corrupted country in the region, followed by Malaysia by
a long short. The most corrupted country according to the same source is
Indonesia. High regulations, extensive red tape as well as inefficient legal and
judiciary system is a common situation in most of the countries in the regionthat worsen the business environment, except for Singapore. Most ASEAN
countries have a developed downstream oil industry, except for Vietnam and
Cambodia. This is mostly aimed for national consumption. Singapore has a
big surplus in refining capacity and has the best developed industry in the
region. Looking at CPP production and consumption, Indonesia is the biggest
producer and consumer. The production levels have remained rather stable,
whereas the consumption has increased significantly. The biggest products
are Diesel and MoGas. Looking at the trade flows, between 1996 and 2004,
Singapore has been dominating the flows in the developing region, especially
as exporter to the other ASEAN countries, even if its production output has
been reduced.
In the future, the political situation is not expected to show significant shifts.
The economic growth will remain biggest in Vietnam and lowest in Brunei over
the forecasted period. The business attractiveness in Vietnam is expected to
increase significantly, in Singapore it will remain as attractive or even better,
and countries like Indonesia and Thailand are trying to work on better
procedures. The Philippines are working on privatization projects. The total
CPP production is expected to remain rather stable in the projected period
and the consumption is expected to increase in ASEAN. Due to regional
deficit in production, Singapore is expected to remain a major refining and
trading hub, but trading will become more important, because of tight refining
margins and big expansions of the storage facilities. Big refining projects are
undertaken in Vietnam, which will have influence on the inbound trade flows in
this country. The trade flows are expected to come from or go to Singapore
most of the time in the near future. | eng |
