Skuldkvotens regionala skillnader - En ekonometrisk panelstudie för Sveriges kommunala skillnader i hushållens skuldkvot under perioden 2010-2015.

Abstract

Since the mid-1990’s, citizens of Sweden have nearly doubled their income-debt ratio and international institutions such as IMF and OECD consider the indebtedness to be of considerable risk for Sweden’s economy. In 2013, Riksbanken started to gather credit-information from the largest operative banks in purpose of acquiring a better perception of household debt risk. Municipals of Sweden exhibit great regional differences, regarding income-debt ratio as well as population, housing prices and levels of education. This study aims to examine the regional differences in income-debt ratios between Sweden’s municipals. Furthermore, it aims to identify the causing factors of increasing household indebtedness. Based on earlier research, ten independent variables have been chosen. Secondary data is used from all of Sweden’s 290 municipals, over the period 2010 to 2015. Our method of choice resulted in a panel-data study which captures the specific municipal differences. Our result presented five variables with similar signs as predicted, based on earlier research. One variable presented the opposite effect, and for three variables no statistical significance was identified. According to previous research, the causality of the independent variables can be hard to determine. Recognizing causality is complex and arguments are presented for the plausibility of each direction. This study does not offer in-depth explanation of the causality for the variables but encouragement is given for further research in the subject. True effect could be of great importance to policymakers in efforts to halt a potential over-indebtedness in Swedish households.