Petroleum Inventory Level: A Leading Indicator of Crude Oil Prices

dc.contributor.author	Larsson, Marcus
dc.date.accessioned	2018-07-04T12:52:58Z
dc.date.available	2018-07-04T12:52:58Z
dc.date.issued	2018-07-04
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/2077/57020
dc.description	MSc in Finance	sv
dc.description.abstract	This paper proposes a short-term forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices using United States petroleum inventory levels and the spread between front-month futures prices and back-month futures prices. Applying the model between January 2010 to January 2018, I find that the model outperforms a naïve forecasting model with a convincing margin. The model is based on readily available data, which makes the model useful for those who are interested in forecasting future oil prices or wanting to understand historical price fluctuations.	sv
dc.language.iso	eng	sv
dc.relation.ispartofseries	Master Degree Project	sv
dc.relation.ispartofseries	2018:147	sv
dc.subject	Petroleum Inventory	sv
dc.subject	Crude oil price	sv
dc.subject	Term Structure	sv
dc.subject	Backwardation	sv
dc.title	Petroleum Inventory Level: A Leading Indicator of Crude Oil Prices	sv
dc.type	Text
dc.setspec.uppsok	SocialBehaviourLaw
dc.type.uppsok	H2
dc.contributor.department	University of Gothenburg/Graduate School	eng
dc.contributor.department	Göteborgs universitet/Graduate School	swe
dc.type.degree	Master 2-years