An evaluation of last digit-based test as a tool for electoral fraud detection

Abstract

In the pursuit of developing reliable tools for electoral fraud detection, tools that use statistical analysis have become very popular. Specifically, methods of digits pattern analysis, of election results, based on observations such as ‘Benford’s law’ have been deemed especially promising tools in electoral fraud detection. However, some versions of this digit pattern analysis have received a fair share of scrutiny. This paper will focus on evaluating the use of ‘last place’ digit pattern analysis, a method that has been shown to be the most promising in detecting electoral fraud by previous literature. By application to the 2018 parliamentary election in Sweden, where there is no reason to suspect fraud, and to the Ugandan presidential election of 2016 where a fraud-free election is unlikely; we find that the last digit pattern analysis failed to distinguish between fraudulent and non-fraudulent elections. Giving reason to question the usefulness of last place digit analysis.