The environment of conflict. A quantitative analysis of the link between water scarcity, non-state conflict and the quality of government in Africa

Abstract

Environmental security has been diligently examined in previous research on both subnational and multinational levels and have not found consensus on the contributing factors for why and how environmental conflict occurs. This thesis aims to contribute to this strand of research, more specifically asking if water scarcities effect the number of non- state conflicts in Africa, depending on the quality of governments. The study suggests, that as freshwater resources gradually decreases the number of non-state conflicts increase, however that it is moderated by levels of corruption within governmental institutions. The research question has been examined and answered, utilizing a quantitative regression analysis comparing the change in freshwater resources in African countries, the amount of domestic non-state conflicts and levels of corruption within the time period of 1995-2016. The findings of this study demonstrate that there is no linear correlation between water scarcities and the amount of non-state conflicts in African countries, furthermore levels of corruption do not moderate this. On the other hand, the results have found that where there are water scarcities there is also a greater likelihood of non-state conflicts to occur if the governments of that country suffer high levels of corruption. Finally, this thesis provides a discussion and suggestions for future research on the topic.