Stimulanspaket och konsumtion i kristider - En studie av CARES Act och dess effekter på privat konsumtion i USA

Abstract

The aim with the thesis is to analyze how stimulus packages can help private consumption in an economic crisis. The analysis is based on the stimulus package CARES Act and its impact on private consumption in USA during the pandemic and it's the relationship between them that are investigated. The research question in the thesis is “How did CARES affect the private consumption in USA during the pandemic”. A logistic regression model is used to estimate the relationship between today's consumption, previous consumption, disposable income and stock index. The regression suggests that all three variables are significant and have a positive impact on consumption. The model is applied to three different scenarios of reality where consumption and disposable income takes on different values depending on the scenario; if there were no pandemic, if there were a pandemic but CARES was not issued and lastly if there were a pandemic and CARES was issued. The results are compared with the actual outcome of consumption for 2020. A conclusion from the result can be drawn that CARES did not contribute to an excessive increase in consumption. However, it seems to have moderated the fall of the consumption during the crisis, compared to if no stimulus package were to be implemented. This shows that CARES had an impact on consumption and that stimulus packages can be an effective tool during an economic crisis.