Husstockens påverkan på köpeskillingen - Småhusstockens effekt på den genomsnittliga köpeskillingen i svenska kommuner

Abstract

Nominal house prices in Sweden have more than doubled, on average, over the last two decades. However, the housing market is fragmented, and the price increase varies from a modest 22 % to a sizable 443 %, depending on the municipality. Earlier studies have found that increased disposable income, housing density, interest rates, and unemployment rates explain large parts of the total rise in prices, though few of them take local differences into account. The purpose of this study is to investigate to what extent the owner-occupied house stock affects average house prices in Swedish municipalities, as well as if and how much this effect varies with the size of the population aged 25 – 64 on a municipal level. The study utilizes a balanced panel data set consisting of Sweden’s 290 local municipalities, from year 2000 – 2019. Fixed effects models show that an increased supply of houses by 1 % decreases the average house prices by approximately 0,19 %, ceteris paribus. This effect is sensitive to the number of residents aged 25 – 64 and remains present when the analysis is performed on the 50 smallest municipalities regarding population size in this interval. However, the relationship observed from the results was not expected and more studies which investigate this effect are needed.