Hits close to home: Shootings and support for the Sweden Democrats

Abstract

Do instances of public gun violence increase support for Radical Right Parties? Using a pseudo-experimental design, this study investigates the impact of shootings in Sweden 2011-2018 on support for the Sweden Democrats. Using GIS techniques to combine both election results and survey data with police data on shootings, shootings show no consistent political effects. While there are some methodological caveats, the results might reflect that perceptions and fear of crime are more important determinants of political attitudes than actual crime.